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Prediction for CME (2023-07-18T20:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-07-18T20:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26092/-1
CME Note: The source of this NE CME is likely an eruption and M1.4 flare from AR 3376 (N27E35) starting ~2023-07-18T19:25Z as seen in SDO AIA. This event partially overlaps with CME 2023-07-18T20:36Z. Arrival signature: from Tarik Mohammad (LASSOS team) a well-defined shock (increase in magnetic field strength, proton density, and bulk speed). A possible sheath region following the shock (enhancements in all the parameters). The possible ICME ejecta start is ~2023-07-21T22:20Z: rotations in both B_y (positive to negative) and B_z (negative to positive) and a sharp decrease in proton density and decrease in bulk speed and temperature. Possibly flank CME encounter since the components (specially B_x and B_y) remain constant. The end of the ICME ejecta is difficult to determine as we have a trailing high-speed stream. The possible end is around 2023-07-22T06:00Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-07-21T19:25Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-07-21T14:37Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 30719
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 19 Jul 2023, 1246UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM  : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5) SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV) PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Jul 2023  10CM FLUX: 176 / AP: 019 PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Jul 2023  10CM FLUX: 180 / AP: 021 PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Jul 2023  10CM FLUX: 180 / AP: 014


Coronal mass ejections: ... A CME was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph data from
20:12 UTC on July 18 to the north east with a simultaneous back sided CME to the north west...

Lead Time: 52.23 hour(s)
Difference: 4.80 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) on 2023-07-19T15:11Z

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